East Germany's Economic Woes Fuel Far-Right Surge Ahead of State Votes

As regional elections approach in eastern Germany, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is riding a wave of support, polling at around 41% in Saxony-Anhalt and 36% in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. While the party's strength in the west is often tied to immigration concerns, analysts say the driving forces in the east are different: a lingering sense of economic disadvantage, shrinking populations, and a shortage of skilled labor.

Lars Gottschligg, a businessman in Saxony-Anhalt who transformed an abandoned building into a renewable energy hub, reflects a common sentiment. "The people I talk to — and I feel this way myself too — we're not afraid of it," he said, referring to the AfD's rise. "They are going to bring about a great deal of change – in fact, they're already doing so."

Decades after reunification, the economic gap between east and west persists. Mecklenburg-Vorpommern's population has fallen by nearly a fifth since 1990, and Saxony-Anhalt has the highest share of pension-age residents in Germany. GDP per capita in the region is only about 76% of the national average. Research from the DIW Berlin institute indicates that the AfD performs significantly better in areas where younger, educated people have left and the population is older.

Yet, a new generation is trying to forge a different path. Pablo Himmelspach, a 29-year-old rapper from Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, sees growing optimism among young people who choose to stay. His duo's latest song, "Mitlaeufer" (Followers), pushes back against the far-right's rise. In Wismar, Peter Holdt created a traveling "Disco Bus" to give teenagers in rural areas something to do, filling a gap the municipal budget cannot cover.

Economists, however, warn that the AfD's remedies could be harmful for the very regions that support it. A DIW study estimates that under AfD policies—such as leaving the EU and cutting state spending—Saxony-Anhalt could lose an average of €1,600 per head in annual income and 10,000 jobs. "Although much of the dissatisfaction among people in strong AfD regions is understandable, they would harm themselves the most by voting for the AfD," said Marcel Fratzscher, president of DIW Berlin.

The AfD disputes this, arguing its plans to end CO2 levies and lift sanctions on Russia would slash energy costs and spark an economic boom. Meanwhile, some local initiatives are showing success through international cooperation. The University of Rostock revamped its marine engineering program with input from local firms, boosting annual enrollment from 10 students to about 200, drawing talent from India, Pakistan, and Egypt. The program's director worries an AfD government could deter such international students with tuition fees.

Despite these concerns, Gottschligg remains confident about the future of his renewable energy business. "People want a healthy environment, and they want affordable energy," he said. "If renewable energy makes economic sense, then I don't think even an AfD government would stand in its way."