AfD's German State Win Renews Far-Right Fears Across Europe

The Alternative for Germany's (AfD) first-ever victory in a state election has reignited concerns about the far-right's momentum across Europe. The win comes as voters across the continent express frustration over economic pressures, the war in Ukraine, and trade tensions with major powers.

However, analysts note that the far-right's advance has not been a steady march. While parties with anti-immigrant and pro-Russian platforms have gained ground in several countries, they have also faced notable defeats and internal fractures.

In Sunday's vote in Saxony-Anhalt, the AfD fell short of an absolute majority, which would have allowed it to form the first far-right state government since the Nazi era. Despite this, the party may still manage to lead a government through coalition negotiations.

Far-right leaders from across the continent, from Portugal to Austria, have celebrated the result. The coming months will reveal whether this marks a turning point in Europe's post-war political consensus or is simply another instance of voters punishing incumbent governments.

The most significant far-right success in recent years was Giorgia Meloni's rise to prime minister in Italy. Despite her party's neo-fascist roots and initial EU-skepticism, Meloni has moderated her stance in office, leading to a period of relative stability. She now faces a challenge from a new party led by a retired general.

Far-right parties have also entered governing coalitions in Finland, Croatia, and Slovakia. In the 2024 European Parliament elections, populist anti-immigrant parties made substantial gains. Since then, the center-right European People's Party has increasingly cooperated with the far-right, including on a major migration overhaul that has drawn criticism from human rights groups and center-left allies.

"It's a bit of a paradox: you partner up with them to prevent them from getting more powerful," noted Sophia Russack, a fellow at the Centre for European Policy Studies.

The far-right's trajectory has not been without setbacks. Hungary's Viktor Orbán, long a standard-bearer for the movement, lost decisively in April to a former ally campaigning against corruption. In the Netherlands, Geert Wilders' coalition collapsed when partners refused his immigration crackdown.

In the United Kingdom, Reform UK has grown in influence, winning local elections in May and prompting a leadership change in the Labour Party. Despite holding only eight parliamentary seats, the party has often led opinion polls. However, it has recently lost several special elections and faced questions about its funding.

These mixed results send a "double-edged message," said Jeremy Cliffe of the European Council on Foreign Relations. "These parties are mortal, they can be defeated, but when they're in power, they're not all chaotic and hopeless."

Upcoming elections in France and Spain present significant opportunities for the far-right, according to Lisa Musiol of the International Crisis Group. In Spain, Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez faces protests over the Ceuta border crisis, while the far-right Vox party has already entered governing agreements with the center-right in four regions. Sanchez called the AfD win "a warning that the far-right threat is gaining ground."

In France, Marine Le Pen is the front-runner to succeed President Emmanuel Macron, who cannot seek a third term. French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot described the German vote as a victory for the "neo-Nazi, anti-European and pro-Putin far right," urging a response to the underlying despair driving support for such parties.