AfD's Saxony-Anhalt Landslide Puts Germany's Anti-Far-Right Consensus Under Strain

Thirteen years after its founding, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has never held a seat in a state or federal government, largely due to an informal "firewall" maintained by mainstream parties. That barrier now faces its most serious test following the party's commanding victory in Sunday's state election in Saxony-Anhalt.

The AfD secured 43.8% of the vote, more than doubling its 2021 result in the eastern state. The centre-right Christian Democrats (CDU), led nationally by Chancellor Friedrich Merz, saw their support roughly halve. The result marks the AfD's strongest performance in any state election to date.

Germany's mainstream parties have long refused to cooperate with the AfD, which is classified as an extremist organisation by domestic intelligence agencies in several regions, including Saxony-Anhalt. The sensitivity of any engagement is heightened by the country's Nazi-era history.

This taboo has previously forced unconventional alliances to keep the AfD from power, such as the ideologically diverse three-party coalition currently governing Thuringia after the AfD became the strongest party there two years ago.

In last year's national election, the AfD became the largest opposition party in parliament after Merz's CDU upheld the firewall and entered an unpopular coalition with the centre-left Social Democrats.

Attention now turns to coalition-building in Saxony-Anhalt. The AfD's candidate for governor, Ulrich Siegmund, has said he will approach all parties and individual lawmakers to seek a governing majority. He has ruled out a minority government.

A potential path to power could involve the hard-left BSW party, which won 5.3% of the vote. The two parties share a Russia-friendly stance and opposition to immigration, though they differ on other issues. On Monday, BSW's lead candidate in the state, Thomas Schulze, signalled willingness to help an AfD governor take office.

Excluding the AfD would require a highly unusual five-party coalition involving the CDU, Social Democrats, Greens, Left Party, and BSW — a configuration widely seen as unwieldy and unstable. Alternatively, the AfD would need just three defections from other parties to command a majority.

Political analyst Volker Resing suggested the BSW could act as a kingmaker. "This tiny party could now play a decisive role in determining the future of Saxony-Anhalt," he said. Resing added that it remains unclear whether parties will unite over their shared stance on Russia to overcome the firewall and form Germany's first far-right state government since the Nazi era.