AfD's Eastern Germany Surge Leaves Migrants Fearful Ahead of State Vote

Shahd Najeeb fled Syria's civil war and rebuilt her life in Germany, but more than a decade later she says she no longer feels certain she belongs there. Speaking from her home in Rostock on Germany's Baltic coast, she recalled the difficulty of escaping Deir al-Zor and the relief of finding refuge. Today, she works serving meals in local schools while her husband, Mahmoud Hmouech, runs a barber shop. The couple have two young children.

Their sense of security is fraying as the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) gains ground across the country's east. Polls indicate the party is positioned to become the largest in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania in Sunday's state election. Earlier this month, the AfD won its first major regional contest in Saxony-Anhalt.

Interviews with 20 people of migrant background in Rostock and Schwerin found many describing a rise in anti-immigrant abuse in recent years. Accounts ranged from muttered remarks to demands that they return to their countries of origin. One woman said a neighbour poured foul-smelling water on her from a balcony. Several interviewees, including workers in healthcare, tourism, education and food services, said they would consider leaving the region if the climate worsened.

Najeeb described an encounter outside a grocery store after collecting her children from school, when she said an elderly man in a wheelchair shouted that she did not belong in Germany. She said her son asked why the man had insulted her, and she told him the man might be unwell. "The pain I experienced in Rostock is a new kind of pain that I have never felt before," she said.

The AfD began in 2013 as a eurosceptic party and sharpened its anti-immigrant stance after then-Chancellor Angela Merkel's 2015 decision to temporarily open Germany's borders, admitting around one million migrants and refugees, about a third of them Syrians. It has since grown into Germany's most popular party, leading Chancellor Friedrich Merz's conservatives in national polls.

Leif-Erik Holm, the AfD's lead candidate in Sunday's vote, says he has no objection to skilled-worker immigration and argues that those who should be deported are the more than 250,000 foreigners without a legal right to stay. Critics contend the broader problem is the atmosphere created by rhetoric they say targets foreigners generally. During a televised debate on Wednesday, Social Democrat state premier Manuela Schwesig accused the AfD of causing widespread fear through its statements on remigration and workers from different cultural backgrounds. Holm called it a shame that such a mood exists but blamed the government for illegal immigration and for deporting only a fraction of those formally required to leave.

The debate also touched on economics. Around 50,000 people with a migration background work in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, a state that economists warn will need more skilled workers given low birth rates and an ageing population. Federal labour office data show around 316,000 Syrian nationals work in Germany, most in full-time jobs paying social security contributions. Their unemployment rate exceeds 30%, but figures from 2023 indicate that among those in Germany seven years or longer, more than 60% hold jobs.

Many Syrians hope to return home if conditions improve, while others, including Najeeb and Hmouech, increasingly see their future in Germany. Hmouech said he does not want his children to grow up feeling rejected by the society they call home. "At the end of the day, family comes first," he said.