AfD Wins State Election in Germany as Merz Calls Result a 'Disaster'

The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) secured first place in state elections in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania on Sunday, according to exit polls, delivering the worst result for Chancellor Friedrich Merz's conservative party since 1949.

Merz described the outcome as "a disaster" but indicated he would remain in office and press ahead with his reform agenda, following speculation that a poor showing might prompt his resignation.

The AfD was projected to win 37% in the northeastern state, ahead of the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) at 35.5%. Merz's conservatives managed only 5.5%, barely clearing the threshold to enter the state parliament, according to exit polls on ARD public television.

The result marks another first-place finish at state level for the AfD, which leads national opinion polls but has been excluded from power by the refusal of other major parties to work with it.

In Berlin, where elections were also held on Sunday, the far-left Linke party led with 24.5%, while Merz's conservatives stood at 20%. The AfD also gained ground in the capital, reaching 16%. It is the first time the Linke has topped polls in the state, where it advocates nationalising housing from corporate landlords and capping rents.

Sunday's results may not prove a knockout blow for Merz, but his low approval ratings, unpopular reforms and the AfD's earlier triumph in Saxony-Anhalt have left his future uncertain.

The SPD's popular state premier in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, Manuela Schwesig, had climbed in the polls by openly criticising both the AfD and the federal government's reforms. She said the AfD had won votes by opposing Germany's support for Ukraine and by calling for the resumption of gas flows through the Nord Stream pipeline.

"First, in my state, many people oppose support for Ukraine, both financial and military," she said. "And a second point: many people also wish to see energy flowing through Nord Stream again."

Vice Chancellor Lars Klingbeil, who also leads the SPD, signalled a desire for a change of course, noting voters' concerns over pension reforms. "As the federal government, we need to analyse why there is such great uncertainty in the country," he told ARD.

Merz, however, doubled down on his reform agenda, which he says will revive sluggish growth in Europe's largest economy. "What needs to be done now requires backbone, steadfastness, and patience," he said. "I would go so far as to say that these reforms are the antidote to the authoritarian poison that is penetrating ever deeper into our society, driven by the allure of authoritarianism."

The elections in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, a largely rural state in the formerly communist east, and in Berlin follow the September 6 vote in Saxony-Anhalt, where the AfD came close to winning an absolute majority.

Although state elections would not usually draw much interest outside Germany, the AfD's success in Saxony-Anhalt, which it sees as a first step towards winning federal elections due in 2029, has sent shock waves through Europe.

In just over a decade, the party — which wants tough action to deport foreigners with no right to stay, restore energy ties with Russia and quit the euro — has transformed from a fringe eurosceptic movement into the country's most popular party.

The exit polls underscore the AfD's advances in recent years and raise fresh questions over the "firewall" strategy, under which other main parties refuse to enter coalition agreements with it.

Elected last year on a promise of reforms to return Germany's stagnant economy to growth, Merz has struggled to win over voters, compounding resentment over unpopular pension, tax and healthcare reforms with a stream of communication missteps.

Disillusion with his government has hung over the campaigns in both Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin, where voters have focused on issues including soaring energy and housing costs. Merz presented a consumer relief package on Friday that included tax cuts on gas and diesel.

Several voters in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania said living costs were a major concern. "Here in Schwerin, with these wages, you can hardly afford anything anymore," voter Carlotta Heick said in the state capital. One elderly man criticised funding for foreign aid, saying, "We need our money here, for our country, for children and pensioners." He asked not to be named.