Africa's Critical Minerals Moment Hinges on Processing and Rail

Global competition for critical minerals is putting Africa at the centre of a contest between Western and Chinese interests, as both vie for metals essential to green technologies and AI data centres. The continent already produces significant volumes of copper, cobalt and manganese, yet its share of global mineral revenues stands at only about 10%, even though it accounts for roughly 30% of world reserves, according to the Brookings Institution. Exploration remains limited: Africa attracted just 10% of global mineral exploration spending in 2024, a figure the Center for Strategic and International Studies expects to rise.

For many African governments, the surge in demand offers a chance to renegotiate terms that have favoured foreign buyers since the colonial era, when extraction was organised around shipping raw materials abroad. That pattern, they argue, has persisted for too long.

One route to capturing more value is domestic processing. Indonesia's 2020 ban on nickel ore exports forced miners to build smelters at home and turned the country into the world's dominant nickel producer, exporting refined metal and battery-grade sulphate. Zimbabwe has since imposed export controls on lithium, Guinea on bauxite, and the Democratic Republic of Congo on cobalt and copper, all aiming to leverage raw materials into local processing capacity.

Yet a June analysis by consultancy CRU and the World Bank found the barriers to building a viable processing business are vast. Power supply, infrastructure, logistics, technical skills and policy must all align for what is a low-margin activity that must remain profitable even when prices fall. Angola's planned aluminium smelter at the port of Barra do Dande illustrates the point: the country has neither bauxite nor alumina capacity, but offers a deep-sea port, a free-trade zone, shared infrastructure and reliable power.

Infrastructure is central to the broader strategy. The Lobito Corridor, backed heavily by the United States and Europe, will link the central African Copperbelt to Angola's port of Lobito via new and upgraded railways. It offers a Western alternative to the Chinese-built TAZARA line running from Zambia to Dar es Salaam, which currently carries much of the region's copper and cobalt toward Chinese ports. The Lobito route cuts freight time from Congolese mines to the sea from over a month to about a week. China has responded with a commitment of $1.4 billion to revamp TAZARA, which it financed in the 1970s. The competing corridors, one heading west and one east, could benefit both Congo and Zambia.

Beyond transport, the Lobito project is intended as an economic booster along its 1,800-kilometre route, with agricultural, metals and technology hubs. Western partners are investing in trade facilitation, vocational training and local employment. In Angola, railway upgrades are already generating economic activity, and Congolese copper and cobalt now travel alongside agricultural goods from Huambo province. Angola exported its first avocados to Europe last November, supported by an EU-funded trade logistics platform and a €50-million programme for sustainable agricultural chains.

Even processing plants may not spread wealth if they operate as export-oriented enclaves. Congo now produces mostly high-purity refined copper, but still ships almost all of it to China for conversion into manufactured goods.

A further challenge is the traditional workforce. Around 10 million people are directly involved in artisanal and small-scale mining across Africa, with many more dependent on it. The work is dangerous, often involves women and children, and can amount to bonded or forced labour, particularly in conflict zones such as eastern Congo and parts of the Sahel. Colonial-era laws that declared such operations illegal have pushed the sector into the shadows, costing states revenue and creating ethical dilemmas for Western buyers. Multiple efforts are under way to formalise the workforce by integrating it into the official mining sector.