APK-Inform lifts Ukraine grain crop forecast but cuts export outlook
APK-Inform raised Ukraine's 2026/27 grain harvest forecast to 65.2 million tons but cut exports to 33.9 million tons due to the Black Sea port blockade.
Ukrainian agricultural consultancy APK-Inform has raised its forecast for the country's 2026/27 grain harvest while sharply reducing its estimate for exports, as a blockade of key Black Sea ports continues to disrupt maritime trade.
In a report, the consultancy increased its grain crop forecast by about 8% to 65.2 million metric tons, up from a previous outlook of 60.5 million tons. The revision reflects higher estimates for wheat and corn, based on preliminary field data and revised crop-yield assessments.
The wheat harvest is now projected at 25 million tons, compared with an earlier estimate of 22.6 million tons, while the corn crop outlook was raised to 32.3 million tons from 29.8 million tons.
Despite the larger harvest, APK-Inform cut its 2026/27 grain export forecast by 14% to 33.9 million tons, down from its most recent estimate of 39.4 million tons. In June, the consultancy had expected exports to reach 43.1 million tons.
Wheat exports could total 10.5 million tons this season, lower than the previous estimate of 13.5 million tons, while corn shipments are likely to fall to 22 million tons from 24 million tons.
The reduced export outlook stems from Russian attacks on Ukrainian Black Sea ports, which have effectively halted maritime exports since late July. The disruption has forced freight traffic to be rerouted through Danube ports and led to a 60% reduction in export volumes.
With shipments constrained, carryover stocks are expected to surge to a record 24 million tons, compared with the previously forecast 14 million tons and 11.6 million tons a season earlier.
The agriculture ministry has kept its own grain crop forecast unchanged at about 60 million tons.