Argentina Doubles Vaca Muerta Oil Estimate, Boosting Export Ambitions

Argentina announced on Thursday that a new study has found its Vaca Muerta shale formation holds an estimated 30.17 billion barrels of recoverable oil—almost double the 16.22 billion barrels estimated in 2013 by the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

The revised figure is a significant boost for the country, which has made Vaca Muerta central to its long-term energy strategy. Officials expect the massive shale deposit to help raise oil exports, bring in much-needed foreign currency, and solidify Argentina's position as a regional energy supplier.

According to the study, the higher estimate does not indicate new oil discoveries underground. Instead, it reflects a decade of drilling experience that has improved industry knowledge of the formation, along with better technology that allows companies to extract more oil from the same rock.

The area considered suitable for drilling has grown by 22%, now extending into parts of southern Mendoza and Rio Negro provinces. Additionally, companies now identify more layers of rock as productive, and the share of oil that can realistically be extracted with current technology increased by 54%, thanks to improvements in well design, drilling, and hydraulic fracturing.

The study was prepared by the Argentine Institute of Oil and Gas (IAPG) at the request of the energy secretariat, with input from major producers including YPF, Chevron, Vista, and Pan American Energy, as well as university and government specialists.

Argentina's government is betting that expanded pipelines, export terminals, and liquefied natural gas projects will help turn Vaca Muerta into a major source of export revenue in the coming years.