Asian Allies Watch Nervously as Trump Prepares to Host Xi

US allies across Asia are increasingly uneasy that President Donald Trump could dilute Washington's backing for Taiwan in exchange for economic gains with Beijing, as he prepares to host Chinese leader Xi Jinping next week.

The anxiety has deepened since Trump described American arms sales to the democratically governed island — which China claims — as a "negotiating chip" in May. He is also under pressure to lift approval ratings dented by the Iran war.

Xi is expected to raise Taiwan at the September 24 summit, and officials, lawmakers and analysts in Taipei, Tokyo and Washington warn that even a subtle shift in US rhetoric could encourage Beijing and unsettle the region's fragile peace.

"There's a great deal of trepidation, particularly from our allies, about where our China policy is going to land," said Emma Chanlett-Avery of the Asia Society Policy Institute. "Any indication of softness on Taiwan would be quite alarming."

China calls Taiwan the "core of core interests" in its ties with the US and has never renounced force to bring the island under its control. Neither China's foreign ministry nor the White House responded to questions.

Trump has said Xi personally assured him China would not attack Taiwan while he is in office. Unlike predecessor Joe Biden, who repeatedly said the US would defend the island, Trump has declined to say whether he would.

Speaking at a Beijing defence forum on Tuesday, China's former envoy to Washington, Cui Tiankai, said "reunification" with Taiwan would bring stability that serves US interests.

Allies seek Trump's ear

Taiwan's government has been conveying its positions to Washington ahead of the summit, senior official Shen Yu-chung told reporters in Taipei on Monday. "We hope ... there will be no situation that harms Taiwan," he said. Foreign Minister Lin Chia-lung said on Tuesday he expected Xi to raise Taiwan but noted Washington has repeatedly said its policy has not changed.

Japan's leader, Sanae Takaichi — who angered Beijing last year by saying Tokyo could be drawn into a Taiwan conflict — has been trying to reach Trump before the Xi meeting, according to two Japanese government sources. A senior foreign ministry official visited Washington last week to help secure a meeting, with the UN General Assembly in New York early next week seen as the likeliest venue. Japan's foreign ministry declined to comment on working-level trips and said nothing had been decided on contact between Takaichi and Trump.

Tokyo wants Trump to stick to established diplomatic language on Taiwan and avoid making it the summit's focus, as happened at his last meeting with Xi in Beijing in May, one source said. Two senior ruling-party lawmakers said Japan's biggest fear is that Trump signals a softer stance to win Chinese commitments to buy US goods — an economic victory he could sell to voters before important midterm elections.

Arms package pending

A $14 billion US arms package for Taiwan has awaited Trump's approval for months. After the May summit, he said he was holding it in abeyance and called it a "very good negotiating chip." Washington must now take Beijing's concerns about arms sales seriously after long dismissing them, said Wu Xinbo, a Fudan University professor who advises China's foreign ministry.

Experts say even a slight change in Trump's wording could embolden Beijing. The US follows a "one China policy," taking no official position on Taiwan's sovereignty and acknowledging, but not endorsing, Beijing's claim. Xi asked Biden in 2023 to clearly denounce Taiwanese independence, though Washington refused. Trump's tendency toward off-the-cuff remarks is especially worrying given the issue's sensitivity, the two Japanese government sources said.

Malaysia's director general of national security, Raja Nushirwan Zainal Abidin, said during a Washington visit this week that the US and other Western countries significantly underestimate Taiwan's importance to Beijing. An invasion of the island, which produces over 90% of the world's advanced semiconductors, would roil the global economy. "It will change the world as we know it, and because of that we have to be very, very careful," he said.