Asia's crude imports climb to post-conflict high in September but stay far below pre-war levels

Asia's crude oil imports rose in September to their highest level since the conflict with Iran began, though the recovery leaves the region well short of its pre-war intake, according to data compiled by commodity analysts Kpler.

The world's largest oil-consuming region is on track to import 23.96 million barrels per day (bpd) this month, up from 23.38 million bpd in August and the strongest reading since February. The figure is still roughly 13% below the 27.55 million bpd average recorded in the three months ending February.

Arrivals have been climbing steadily since April, when they fell to 19.15 million bpd — the lowest in more than a decade. The United States and Israel launched an aerial bombing and missile campaign against Iran on February 28, after which Tehran threatened shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway that carried about 20% of global crude and refined products before the war. The strait remains contested, with Iran occasionally striking vessels and the US Navy working to secure passage for tankers from Gulf exporters including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Iraq.

Estimates of how much oil is actually leaving the Middle East have been disputed. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright has said on several occasions that as much as 15 million bpd was departing the region, while tanker-tracking services have reported lower volumes. A clearer picture emerges from Middle East crude imports, which flow overwhelmingly to Asia.

Asia's imports from the Middle East reached 12.56 million bpd in September, up from 11.66 million bpd in August and more than 5 million bpd above April's post-conflict low of 7.12 million bpd. Even so, that is about 3.53 million bpd below the 16.09 million bpd average for the three months before the conflict. Global imports from the Middle East total 14.7 million bpd in September — close to Wright's 15 million bpd claim, but still some 3 million bpd under pre-war levels.

The recent closure of Saudi Arabia's East-West oil pipeline following a strike reportedly from Iraq is likely to weigh on October imports from the Middle East, though flows may recover in November as the pipeline has been repaired and is operating again.

Constrained crude supply continues to show up in refined products. Asia is forecast to receive 5.84 million bpd of light and middle distillates in September, up from 5.25 million bpd in August but more than 1 million bpd below the 7.06 million bpd averaged in the three months before the conflict. The shortfall has kept diesel, jet fuel and gasoline at near-record premiums to crude benchmarks. Brent's front-month contract traded around $99 a barrel in Asia on Wednesday, while Singapore gasoil stood at $173.84 a barrel and gasoline at $139.60. Before the war, such premiums typically ranged between $10 and $20 a barrel.