Australia Forecasts Deaths to Outpace Births by 2060s as Population Ages

Australia's Treasury has projected that deaths will outnumber births for the first time in the 2060s, marking a demographic turning point for an economy already contending with an ageing population, falling fertility and reduced immigration.

The forecast, contained in the Intergenerational Report released on Monday, signals that natural increase will cease to drive population growth by that decade. For years, Australia has relied on immigration to counter low birth rates, but with arrivals slowing, the country is moving along a path already followed by several advanced economies where deaths now exceed births.

According to the report, population growth is expected to average 0.9 per cent annually over the next four decades, down from 1.4 per cent over the past 40 years. The slowdown reflects declining fertility rates and a continued fall in net overseas migration before it stabilises.

Treasury identified five major transformations shaping the economic outlook through the 2060s: artificial intelligence, geopolitical fragmentation, the energy transition, population ageing and a shift towards a service-based economy.

The report cautioned that an older population will increase demand for care services, with regions having higher shares of elderly residents likely to face greater labour shortages in healthcare and aged care — sectors that depend heavily on migrant workers.

It also flagged potential tax cuts in future budgets as the government delivers further cost-of-living relief to households dealing with elevated inflation, higher mortgage rates and expensive housing.

The projections come after the Labor government tightened immigration rules last week, as Prime Minister Anthony Albanese seeks to counter rising support for the right-wing populist One Nation party, which has promised sharp immigration cuts. Albanese's approval rating slipped this week to its lowest level since he took office in 2022.