Black Sea grain exports grind to halt as attacks shut ports

Attacks on shipping have brought grain exports from Russia and Ukraine's Black Sea and Azov Sea terminals to a near standstill, cutting off a major source of low-cost supply for global markets. The disruption has shut down more than 97% of the two countries' grain export capacity in the region, according to official data and analyst estimates.

Last season, Russia and Ukraine together exported an average of 7.2 million metric tons of grain per month from these terminals. Now, no shipments are leaving Ukraine's Black Sea ports, and in Russia, only a small facility in Tuapse, with a monthly capacity of about 160,000 tons, remains officially operational.

Global wheat prices have risen about 6.5% this month and are now roughly 30% higher than a year ago. While large stockpiles have allowed importers to delay purchases, traders say pressure is mounting to secure supplies as there are no signs of de-escalation.

Several carriers loading or preparing to load grain at Russian ports were hit by drones this week. Major Russian grain terminals in Novorossiysk, including NZT and NKHP, have been shut after a Ukrainian drone strike. KSK, Russia's largest grain terminal, has suspended deliveries and exports, and operations at the Taman terminal have also been halted.

Ukraine's Odesa port hub effectively ceased operations at the end of July, with no new ship calls recorded as of mid-August. Ukraine is now exporting grain via rail links with Eastern Europe and Danube river ports, each accounting for about 45% of shipments, with the remaining 10% transported by road. Agriculture Minister Taras Vysotskyi said Ukraine expects to reach 50% of its export potential if the ports remain blocked.

Russia could redirect some exports through Baltic, Caspian, and Far Eastern ports, though longer transport distances are likely to create logistical challenges and increase costs.