Brazil: Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro in Statistical Dead Heat Ahead of October Vote
A new Nexus poll shows Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro statistically tied in a potential runoff, with Lula leading the first-round field.
Brazil's presidential race is tightening, with a fresh opinion survey showing President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro locked in a statistical tie for a potential second-round showdown.
The Nexus poll, commissioned by investment bank BTG Pactual, gives Lula 46% support against 45% for Bolsonaro in a simulated runoff — a gap well within the survey's margin of error. The result marks a slight shift from a poll conducted on August 17, which had Lula ahead by three points at 47%-44%.
In the first-round scenario, Lula leads the field with 41% of voting intentions, followed by Bolsonaro at 37%. Other candidates trail significantly: Ronaldo Caiado registers 5%, while Renan Santos and Romeu Zema each draw 3%. The previous survey had shown Lula at 41% and Bolsonaro at 36% in the first round.
Brazilian electoral rules require a candidate to secure more than 50% of valid votes to win outright in the first round. If no one reaches that threshold, the top two finishers move to a runoff.
The poll surveyed 2,006 people between August 21 and 23, with a margin of error of two percentage points.