Flavio Bolsonaro, Lula locked in tight runoff race, new poll finds
A new AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll puts Flavio Bolsonaro at 47.2% and Lula at 46.8% in a simulated runoff ahead of Brazil's October election.
Brazilian Senator Flavio Bolsonaro and President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva are statistically tied in a hypothetical runoff ahead of next month's election, with the right-wing challenger holding a slender lead inside the survey's margin of error.
The AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll released on Thursday put Flavio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, at 47.2% of voter support in a runoff, against 46.8% for the leftist incumbent. In an earlier survey on September 10, Bolsonaro led Lula by 46.4% to 46.2%.
In a first-round scenario, Lula would take 44.1% of voter support, followed by Bolsonaro at 41.7%, Renan Santos at 5.1% and Augusto Cury at 3.5%. The previous poll had shown Lula at 43% and Bolsonaro at 37.4% in the first round.
Under Brazil's electoral rules, if no candidate secures more than 50% of valid votes in the October 4 election, the two frontrunners advance to a runoff on October 25.
AtlasIntel surveyed 5,018 people between September 11 and 16. The poll carries a margin of error of 1 percentage point.