Lula Widens First-Round Lead, Tied With Flavio Bolsonaro in Runoff Polls
Brazil's Lula leads first-round polling but is statistically tied with Flavio Bolsonaro in a simulated runoff, two surveys show.
Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has widened his advantage in first-round polling while remaining statistically level with Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in a simulated runoff, according to two surveys released on Monday.
If no candidate secures more than 50% of valid votes in the October 4 first round, the two leading contenders would meet in a runoff on October 25.
A Quaest poll commissioned by Globo put Lula and the right-wing Bolsonaro at 42% each in a potential runoff. A week earlier, the same pollster had Bolsonaro at 42% and Lula at 41%. In a first-round scenario, Lula led with 39% against Bolsonaro's 34%, up from 37% and 33% in the previous survey. Quaest interviewed 2,004 people from September 24 to 27, with a margin of error of 2 percentage points.
A BTG Pactual/Nexus poll showed Lula taking 46% in a runoff against 44% for the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro. A September 21 survey had Lula ahead by 46% to 45%. In the first round, Lula stood at 42% and Bolsonaro at 37%, compared with 40% and 37% previously. Nexus surveyed 2,000 people from September 25 to 27, also with a 2-point margin of error.
Both surveys indicate that while Lula has gained ground in the opening round, the runoff contest remains within the margin of error.