Lula's Final Fight: Brazil Vote Tests Latin America's Left

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has framed Sunday's election as part of a wider struggle against undemocratic forces, telling the United Nations General Assembly this month that "Brazil does not fit into anyone's backyard" and warning of foreign interference in the race.

After a wave of right-wing victories across Latin America in recent years, many progressives see Lula's bid for reelection against Senator Flavio Bolsonaro — son of former far-right President Jair Bolsonaro — as a potential turning point that could help reverse the region's conservative drift.

Lula has cast Senator Bolsonaro, whom he has called a "nobody" on the campaign trail, as a stand-in for a broader right-wing movement, sharing images linking him to Argentina's President Javier Milei, Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US President Donald Trump.

Yet the president enters the campaign's closing stretch about even with Senator Bolsonaro, who is running in place of his father, arrested for leading a failed coup after losing to Lula in 2022. Despite progress on inequality and unemployment, Lula's government still faces voter frustration over rising living costs and has not overcome the polarization that has gripped Brazil for nearly a decade.

International interest was evident during Lula's New York visit, where he met US progressives Mayor Zohran Mamdani and Senator Bernie Sanders. Paulo Abrao, executive director of the Washington Brazil Office, said foreign observers see Brazil as helping determine which political camp emerges stronger in a global struggle between democracy and authoritarianism. One person close to the president said several leaders at the UN told the Brazilian delegation they were watching with concern about which Brazil would emerge after the vote.

Lula's 2023 return to power capped a dramatic comeback. After leaving office 12 years earlier with an 87% approval rating, he became the main target of a sprawling corruption investigation in 2016 as Brazil descended into turmoil, including the impeachment of his successor, Dilma Rousseff. He spent 580 days in prison before his conviction was overturned over flaws in the investigations and legal proceedings. The arrest stopped him from running against Jair Bolsonaro, a former army captain who rose to power in 2018 vowing to undo much of what progressives had achieved since the end of military rule in the 1980s. Lula remained a symbol for much of the global left, attracting visitors from former Uruguayan President Pepe Mujica to philosopher Noam Chomsky.

He returned to office convinced Brazil stood on the front line of a broader struggle against a global right-wing movement, a belief reinforced for many by the January 8, 2023, attacks by Bolsonaro supporters on government buildings in Brasilia. "As long as I am alive, the far right will not return to power in this country," he has repeatedly said while campaigning.

While Lula has strengthened ties with China, revived Brazil's leadership role in the BRICS bloc and expanded engagement with Europe, recent right-wing victories in South America and a confrontational relationship with the Trump administration have left him increasingly isolated in the Western Hemisphere. Some Brazilian diplomats say Washington views Brazil as the last major obstacle to a sweep of Trump-aligned governments across Latin America, after recent victories in Chile, Colombia, Honduras and Peru, and an unprecedented expansion of US power in Venezuela after its military intervention.

In Washington, progressives view Lula as a "beacon of hope," said Alex Main of the Center for Economic and Policy Research. In neighboring Argentina, opponents of libertarian President Javier Milei see Lula's possible reelection as a boost ahead of next year's vote. "If Lula wins, it will create a countercurrent to what has been taking hold in the region and show there is resistance to these right-wing winds," said Santiago Cafiero, a congressman and former foreign minister. Diplomats from liberal European governments supportive of Brazil's climate initiatives are also watching closely, with one ambassador warning that widespread human rights violations or Amazon deforestation would make engagement harder.

Brazil's resistance to Trump and his tariffs appears to have benefited Lula among some voters, lifting his approval ratings as some progressives dubbed Flavio Bolsonaro "Tariflavio," pointing to the senator's recent US visit to win Trump's support. But in recent weeks, Lula's allies have voiced concerns that the Trump administration might refuse to recognize election results if he wins, arguing attempts to interfere are already underway. They point to US Secretary of State Marco Rubio's remarks blaming Lula for the failure of trade negotiations that led to higher US tariffs on Brazilian goods, and a failed effort to send US officials to Brazil on a mission to "discuss electoral integrity."

Before the 2022 election, former President Joe Biden sent his CIA director to tell former President Bolsonaro not to mess with elections, and made sure the US was among the first countries to recognize the result. Last week, 31 Democrats in Congress, including US Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, urged Rubio to respect Brazil's election result, expressing "grave concern" over a "sustained, multifaceted campaign of interference and destabilization in Brazil." The State Department did not respond to a request for comment but has denied previous accusations from Lula's government of election interference.