Lula Widens First-Round Lead in Brazil, But Runoff With Flavio Bolsonaro Stays Tight
Brazil's Lula leads first-round voting intentions 42% to 37%, but a simulated runoff against Flavio Bolsonaro is statistically tied at 46% to 44%.
Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has stretched his advantage in first-round voting intentions, even as a hypothetical runoff against Senator Flavio Bolsonaro remains too close to call, a BTG Pactual/Nexus poll released on Monday showed.
In a simulated second-round matchup, Lula would take 46% of voter support against 44% for the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro. That narrow lead falls within the survey's margin of error, leaving the race statistically tied. A week earlier, the same matchup stood at 46% to 45%.
The picture shifts in a first-round scenario, where Lula now leads with 42% of the vote, up from 40% in the previous survey. Flavio Bolsonaro holds 37%, unchanged from the earlier reading. Augusto Cury and Ronaldo Caiado follow with 5% each, while Renan Santos sits at 4%.
Under Brazil's electoral rules, a candidate must secure more than 50% of valid votes in the first round to win outright. Otherwise, the two frontrunners advance to a runoff. The first round is scheduled for October 4, with a second round, if needed, set for October 25.
Nexus interviewed 2,000 people between September 25 and 27. The poll carries a margin of error of 2 percentage points.