Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro locked in statistical tie ahead of Brazil vote
Two polls show President Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro statistically tied in potential runoffs, with the October 4 first round fast approaching.
Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro are statistically tied in simulated runoff scenarios ahead of next month's election, according to two polls released on Monday.
In a Quaest survey, Bolsonaro, the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, drew 42% support in a potential runoff against 41% for Lula. A separate BTG Pactual/Nexus poll put Lula at 46% and Bolsonaro at 45%. Both leads fall within the polls' two-percentage-point margins of error.
The Quaest result marks a slight shift from its September 14 survey, which had Bolsonaro at 42% and Lula at 40%. The BTG Pactual/Nexus poll likewise narrowed from an earlier 47%-to-46% Lula advantage.
In first-round scenarios, Quaest showed Lula leading with 37%, followed by Bolsonaro at 33%, Augusto Cury at 6% and Ronaldo Caiado at 4%. That compares with the previous week's 36% for Lula and 31% for Bolsonaro.
The BTG Pactual/Nexus first-round survey put Lula at 40%, Bolsonaro at 37%, Cury at 6% and Caiado at 5%, down from 42% and 37% respectively in the prior poll.
If no candidate secures more than 50% of valid votes in the October 4 first round, the two frontrunners will advance to a runoff on October 25.
Quaest surveyed 2,004 people from September 17 to 20, while Nexus polled 2,006 people from September 18 to 20. Both surveys carry a margin of error of 2 percentage points.