Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro Neck-and-Neck in Brazil Runoff Scenario, Poll Finds
A new AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll puts Lula at 47.7% and Flavio Bolsonaro at 47.4% in a simulated runoff, a statistical tie ahead of Brazil's October 4 election.
Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro are statistically tied in a hypothetical runoff, according to a new AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll, with the incumbent holding a slender advantage inside the survey's margin of error.
The poll, released on Wednesday, found Lula drawing 47.7% of voter support in a second-round matchup against 47.4% for the right-wing lawmaker. In an earlier survey dated September 17, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro had led by 47.2% to 46.8%.
In the first-round scenario, Lula would take 45.8% of the vote, ahead of Bolsonaro at 43.4%. Renan Santos followed at 4.5%, Augusto Cury at 2.1% and Ronaldo Caiado at 1.3%. The previous poll had put Lula at 44.1% and Bolsonaro at 41.7%.
Under Brazilian electoral rules, if no candidate secures more than 50% of valid votes in the October 4 election, the two frontrunners advance to a runoff on October 25.
AtlasIntel surveyed 5,015 people between September 17 and 22. The poll carries a margin of error of 1 percentage point.