Brazil Poll Shows Bolsonaro Edging Ahead of Lula in Runoff Race
A fresh Brazil poll shows Flavio Bolsonaro leading Lula 46%-45% in a runoff, a statistical tie ahead of October voting.
A new opinion poll in Brazil indicates a razor-thin race between right-wing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro and leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva ahead of next month's elections. The survey, conducted by Nexus and commissioned by BTG Pactual, shows Bolsonaro with 46% support against Lula's 45% in a simulated second-round runoff.
The one-point gap falls within the poll's margin of error of two percentage points, making the contest a statistical tie. This marks the first time the senator has edged ahead of the president in Nexus tracking, which began in late March when the two were level at 46% each. An earlier poll on August 31 had shown Lula leading by a single point.
In a first-round scenario, Lula leads with 39% of the vote, followed by Bolsonaro at 35%. Other candidates trail significantly, with Augusto Cury at 9%, Ronaldo Caiado at 4%, and Renan Santos at 4%.
Brazilian electoral rules require a candidate to secure more than 50% of valid votes in the first round to avoid a runoff. The first round is scheduled for October 4, with a potential second round set for October 25.
The poll surveyed 2,002 people between September 4 and 7.