Brazil polls show Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro locked in tight runoff race

Two opinion polls released on Monday put Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and right-wing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro statistically level in a possible second-round runoff, with each survey pointing to a different, narrow leader.

In a BTG Pactual/Nexus survey, Lula edged ahead of the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro by 47% to 46% in a simulated runoff. A week earlier, the same poll had Bolsonaro leading 46% to 45%, his strongest result in that survey since March.

A separate Quaest poll commissioned by Globo placed Bolsonaro ahead by 42% to 40% in a runoff scenario, the first time he has led numerically in that survey. A September 7 Quaest poll had the two candidates tied at 41% each.

The senator's recent polling strength has helped Brazilian assets rally, as he is seen as more market-friendly.

In first-round scenarios, the Nexus poll showed Lula with 42%, followed by Bolsonaro at 37%, Augusto Cury at 6%, Ronaldo Caiado at 5% and Renan Santos at 2%. Quaest put Lula at 36%, Bolsonaro at 31%, Cury at 7%, Caiado at 4% and Santos at 4%.

Nexus surveyed 2,003 people from September 11 to 13, while Quaest surveyed 2,004 people from September 10 to 13. Both polls have a margin of error of 2 percentage points.

If no candidate wins more than 50% of valid votes in the October 4 first round, the two frontrunners will advance to a runoff on October 25.