Brazil forecasts record corn crop as soy growth slows to two-decade low

Brazil's soybean output is projected at 181.64 million metric tons in the 2026/27 season, a 0.7% increase over the previous crop, in the first official estimate for the new cycle released by national crop agency Conab.

The agency described the outlook as one of moderate growth against a tighter supply and demand balance, pointing to thinner profit margins and the reduced economic appeal of bringing new land into production.

Planted area for soybeans was put at 49.3 million hectares (121.8 million acres), up only slightly from 48.6 million hectares a season earlier. The increase is the smallest in percentage terms in twenty years.

Growers in the world's largest soybean producer and exporter have faced elevated borrowing costs and costlier fertilizer, with input expenses climbing amid the Middle East conflict.

Soybean exports are forecast to rise 1.5% to 117.98 million tons, underpinned by firm Chinese demand. Conab cautioned that gains could be limited by the modest rise in Brazilian supply and stiffer competition from U.S. soybeans, with the United States expected to bring in a large harvest in 2026/27.

Domestic crushing is also seen increasing, driven mainly by expectations of stronger soy oil demand from the biodiesel sector.

Corn at a record

Brazil's 2026/27 corn crop is projected at 148 million tons, up 2.8% from the previous season and the largest harvest ever recorded in the country.

Domestic consumption is expected to keep expanding, supported by steady growth in the feed industry and the rapid build-out of Brazil's corn-based ethanol sector.

Corn exports were forecast at 46.01 million tons, compared with 43.9 million tons a season earlier. Conab said shipments should stay strong on ample supplies and the competitiveness of Brazilian corn, though competition from the United States and Argentina, foreign exchange swings and logistics costs could weigh on volumes.