California's Valadao faces tough reelection as Latino voters sour on Trump

In California's Central Valley, a region of sprawling farms and tight-knit communities, Republican Rep. David Valadao has built a career on political survival. His district, where two in three voters are Hispanic, has trended Republican in recent cycles, but the political winds have shifted. New polling indicates a sharp decline in President Donald Trump's approval among Hispanic adults nationally, a drop of 18 points since March 2025, far outpacing the nine-point decline among all adults.

Valadao, a dairyman of Portuguese Azorean descent, is no standard Trump loyalist. He was one of the few Republicans to vote for Trump's impeachment after the January 6 attack. Yet, his electoral fate is tied to the national mood. He remains publicly confident, stating, "I've won in these types of races. I can win again."

His campaign is walking a tightrope, presenting him as someone who puts "people before political parties" while also appealing to partisans by asking voters if completing Trump's agenda is important. The strategy is being tested in a district that was redrawn to be more Democratic, giving the party a 16-point registration advantage. The race has become one of the most expensive in the nation, with Republicans outspending Democrats on advertising.

Valadao's challenger is Randy Villegas, a progressive Democrat endorsed by Sen. Bernie Sanders. Villegas, the son of Mexican immigrants who grew up on Medicaid, is campaigning on Medicare for All. He points to Valadao's vote for the Trump administration's major budget bill, which included tax breaks but also cuts to federal health and food assistance programs. Analysts estimate tens of thousands of constituents in the district, which has one of the highest Medicaid enrollment rates in the country, could lose coverage.

Valadao dismisses those projections as "overstated" and paints his opponent as too extreme for a district with many immigrants who fled socialist-leaning governments. At a town hall in Bakersfield, Villegas found a receptive audience when he asked who had used Medicaid or crossed the border for cheaper medical care.

Local voters reflect the national divide. Scott Alcoser, a Republican who has backed Valadao before, is undecided, wanting to hear more about how the congressman will help struggling working-class families. Elena Van Overbeek, a Republican law enforcement retiree, is disappointed by high prices and worried about healthcare cuts, planning to vote for Villegas. Others, like Trump supporter and retired nurse Margie Lopez, still see Valadao as "a decent man."

Political analysts are split. Some see the district's fundamentals—a sour economy and an anti-incumbent mood—as nearly impossible for Valadao to overcome. Others note that Central Valley voters often think differently from coastal Democrats, prioritizing jobs and stability. The outcome of this race could offer a potent national signal on the state of the Latino vote and the political climate ahead of the next election.