Chicago grain futures edge up as Ukraine export outlook darkens

Chicago grain futures opened higher on Tuesday, with wheat, corn and soybeans all posting modest gains as traders weighed fresh signs of disruption to Black Sea shipments.

The most-active wheat contract on the Chicago Board of Trade was up 0.1% at $6.41 a bushel in early Asian trading. Soybeans gained 0.2% to $11.81-1/2 a bushel, while corn edged 0.2% higher to $4.62-3/4 a bushel.

Ukraine's agriculture minister said on Monday that the country has cut its grain export forecast for the 2026/27 July-June season by up to 12% from a previous projection, citing Russian attacks on the southern Odesa port hub. The ministry warned that the disruption could lead to a grain storage shortfall of 11 million tons.

Independent analysts at APK-Inform also trimmed their Ukraine grain export forecast on Monday, cutting it by 8.6% to 39.4 million tons.

While both Ukraine and Russia have increasingly targeted ships and ports during their four-and-a-half-year conflict, both countries are harvesting large crops that could add to already ample global supplies.

In the United States, the Department of Agriculture trimmed its weekly soybean condition rating to 62% good-to-excellent, down one point from a week earlier. As of Tuesday, 28% of U.S. corn and 26% of soybeans were affected by drought, according to the USDA and the National Drought Mitigation Center.

Farmers, analysts and grain traders were assessing crop conditions and monitoring weather forecasts ahead of the USDA's monthly crop supply-and-demand report due Wednesday.

Elsewhere, oil prices steadied at more than one-week highs amid fading hopes of a U.S.-Iran deal to end their war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, after President Donald Trump demanded compensation for damage the U.S. has incurred.