Wheat climbs on Black Sea supply fears and softer dollar

Chicago wheat futures climbed on Monday, buoyed by a softer U.S. dollar and renewed concerns over grain shipments from the Black Sea region. The most-traded wheat contract on the Chicago Board of Trade rose 1.1% to $6.46-3/4 a bushel, while corn edged up 0.2% and soybeans gained 0.1%.

The dollar remained near a two-month low, making U.S. grain more competitive on global markets. At the same time, traders are weighing the impact of escalating attacks between Russia and Ukraine on port and shipping infrastructure. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Moscow was targeting global food security by striking Odesa's seaport.

Analysts at JPMorgan noted that the attacks raise the risk of slower loadings, higher insurance costs, and more cautious vessel movement, which has already added a risk premium to prices. They also pointed out that Ukrainian strikes on Russia's fuel supply could restrict diesel availability for agricultural machinery, potentially affecting production.

Despite these concerns, the ongoing Northern Hemisphere harvest is limiting price gains. In corn, France's farm ministry projected a 35% drop in production this year to 9.0 million metric tons, the lowest since at least 1980, following heat waves and drought.

Traders are now awaiting the U.S. Department of Agriculture's monthly report, due Tuesday, which will provide updated yield, acreage, and production forecasts that could move prices.