China's clean power rejection surges 49% as grids fail to keep pace
China curtailed 360 TWh of clean power in H1 2026, up 49% year-on-year, as grid limits and coal contracts force renewable rejection globally.
China rejected enough wind and solar power in the first six months of 2026 to power Mexico for a year, as grid bottlenecks and structural policy choices force the world's largest clean energy builder to waste a growing share of its output.
New analysis from Global Energy Monitor and the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air estimates that China curtailed 360 terawatt-hours (TWh) of renewable electricity between January and June — a 49% jump from the same period last year. The figure is far higher than official government data, which put curtailment at 8.6% of solar output and 9.1% of wind output in the first half.
The gap stems from methodology: the report uses weather-adjusted data to account for unreported curtailment, arriving at a 26.1% rejection rate for total wind and solar generation.
Analysts describe the problem as structural rather than temporary. Insufficient transmission infrastructure and supply contracts that guarantee operations of newly built coal plants are forcing grid operators to turn away abundant renewable power. Wood Mackenzie analyst Yuan Ren said curtailment pressure is expected to persist through the rest of the decade.
The trend is already reshaping investment. China has seen a 66% drop in new solar installations this year, driven partly by curtailment and a policy shift that removes guaranteed fixed prices for renewables. Investors are moving toward solar-plus-storage projects to reduce exposure, and coal-fired generation is expected to rise again in 2026 after a rare decline.
Curtailment is not confined to China. Australia's National Electricity Market rejected 2.93 TWh of wind and solar in the first half of 2026, up 37% and representing 7% of output. Japan curtailed 2.35 TWh, a 34% increase and 4% of renewable generation.
India, the world's third-largest solar producer, curtailed 8.13 TWh of solar power in the June quarter — 14% of its solar output — according to its renewable energy minister. That compares with 0.47 TWh of total renewable curtailment in the March quarter, though seasonal generation differences explain part of the jump.
Ember analyst Kostantsa Rangelova said efficient deployment and rapid battery storage scale-up could help curb the trend. She pointed to Chile, which added 4 GWh of batteries in 2025, more than doubling capacity, with most new storage co-located with solar plants to reduce rejection.