El Niño, not earthquake, is the bigger threat to Colombia's coffee crop

Colombia's coffee harvest has largely escaped the impact of the powerful earthquake that struck the country's western farming regions on August 10, according to the National Coffee Growers Federation. The 7.4-magnitude quake killed 319 people and damaged infrastructure across provinces that account for roughly a third of the nation's crop.

However, the federation's head, German Bahamon, said the bigger worry for production is the weather. "Production itself is not affected by the earthquake. Production will very likely be affected by the El Niño phenomenon," he said in an interview.

El Niño, a periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific, is expected to strengthen into a very strong event later this year and into early 2027, boosting temperatures and disrupting rainfall globally. The federation now forecasts production to fall 8% to 12.5 million 60-kilogram bags this year, down from 13.7 million bags in 2025, due to heavy rains earlier in the year and the onset of El Niño.

Initial surveys identified 10,500 coffee-growing families in the disaster zone, with 8,000 reporting partial or total destruction of homes and processing facilities. The federation plans to lead a reconstruction program alongside government aid, including a scheme to purchase harvested coffee cherries.

Exports from Buenaventura, Colombia's main coffee port handling 60% of shipments, have returned to normal after temporary safety inspections and road closures. "There have been no issues with exports ... They are proceeding perfectly," Bahamon said.

Beyond climate concerns, Bahamon warned that the strength of the Colombian peso, at its highest level since October 2018, is eroding farmer margins. He estimated growers are losing 700,000 pesos ($229) per 125-kg load due to the rising value against the dollar.

Colombia is the world's third-largest coffee producer and the top supplier of washed Arabica, with approximately 540,000 families depending on the industry, which covers 840,000 hectares.