Congo's Ebola Outbreak Could Triple in Size, Data Shows
Congo's Ebola outbreak, the fastest on record, may be three times larger than known, with contact tracing far below control levels.
The Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo is spreading faster than any previous epidemic and has not yet reached its peak, according to data from health authorities and the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC). The World Health Organization warns it is on track to surpass the 2014–2016 West Africa outbreak, which killed over 11,000 people.
As of the latest count, the outbreak has caused 2,516 deaths among 5,290 confirmed cases. However, Yap Boum, head of emergency preparedness and response at Africa CDC, told reporters that only 30–40% of cases have been detected, meaning the true scale could be three times larger.
A major concern is the low rate of contact tracing. Fewer than 10% of current cases are linked to known contacts, far below the 90–95% threshold considered necessary for control. Africa CDC data shows that while the reported contact tracing rate is 82% of 19,630 contacts, the expected number of contacts for 1,663 cases over three weeks is 99,780, putting the actual tracing rate at just 16%.
The outbreak is caused by the Bundibugyo virus, which has no approved vaccines or treatments, unlike the more common Zaire strain. Its milder symptoms may discourage patients from seeking care, contributing to underreporting.
The epidemic has expanded from three health zones to 56 across six provinces. In Bas-Uele province, two cases appeared in separate areas over the past week and a half. However, some regions are improving—South Kivu has reported no cases for 79 days.
Community deaths remain high, with 97% of deaths on August 17 occurring outside treatment centers. Only 20% of health alerts come from communities, highlighting a need for better engagement. The overall case fatality rate is 46.7%, but in North Kivu it reaches 68.2%.
Experts believe the outbreak began in the mining town of Mongbwalu as early as February, months before it was officially declared on May 15. Misinformation, preference for traditional medicine, and fear of isolation are keeping many from reporting symptoms early.