Dalit Vote in UP No Longer a BSP Monopoly as 2027 Polls Approach

With more than six months to go before Uttar Pradesh's 2027 Assembly elections, parties are hunting for issues that can move voters. One such flashpoint is a rally addressed by Mallikarjun Kharge at the Ramlila Ground in Haldwani, followed by a purification ceremony that some have described as a shuddhikaran puja. The Congress, whose Dalit support in the State is marginal, is seeking to turn the episode into an opening to widen its reach among Dalit communities.

The bigger question for Uttar Pradesh, however, is not whether parties will court Dalit voters — they will — but how transferable that vote has become and which party or alliance can draw it in numbers large enough to matter in 2027.

The Bahujan Samaj Party was long the default choice for Dalit voters, more so among Jatavs than among other Dalit groups. Its grip has since loosened. In 2007, when the party formed a government in the State, 86% of Jatavs backed it, against 54% of non-Jatav Dalits. By the 2022 Assembly polls, those figures had fallen to 65% and 27% respectively.

A widening gap

Splitting the two groups apart makes the trend sharper. Among Jatavs, backing for the BJP and the National Democratic Alliance rose from about 3% in 2002 to roughly 20% in 2022, while BSP support slipped from 76% to 65%. Among non-Jatav Dalits the movement is more pronounced: NDA support climbed from 12% to 40%, even as the BSP's share dropped from 45% to 27%.

Between 2002 and 2022, BJP/NDA support grew by 28 percentage points among non-Jatav Dalits, compared with 17 points among Jatavs. The data indicate that the BSP's erosion is not simply a splintering of the Dalit vote — much of what it lost has gone to the BJP, particularly among non-Jatav Dalits.

The party's overall decline in the State tracks this shift. Its vote share fell from 30.4% in 2007 to 12.8% in 2022. Over the same period, the BJP/NDA expanded from 18.5% to 43.8%, and the Samajwadi Party and its allies from 25.4% to 36.3%. The BSP shrank, but both the BJP-led and SP-led blocs grew.

Congress's difficult path

The Congress's standing among Dalit voters is very low, as it is among several other communities, yet the party is treating the Ramlila Ground episode as a chance to win back sections of them. Its record offers little encouragement. Its vote share has stayed in single digits among both Jatavs and non-Jatav Dalits, the lone exception being 2012, when it drew 16% of the non-Jatav Dalit vote. Even that did not produce a lasting shift; by 2022 its support among the group had dropped to 4%.

As the Congress tries to reclaim Dalit support from the BSP, the available data suggest a hard road. The BSP's weakening has not, so far, translated into a meaningful recovery for the Congress among either Jatavs or non-Jatav Dalits.

Elections are due in early 2027, and parties will keep reaching out to Dalits and other caste communities. Only the results will show who succeeds. The data already point to one conclusion: the Dalit vote remains electorally significant, but it is no longer anchored to a single party as it once was. The BSP's decline has not meant that Dalit voters lack clear preferences. Rather, the BJP has gained substantially from that decline, especially among non-Jatav Dalits, while the SP has held on to a meaningful share. The Congress has yet to emerge as a major beneficiary.

Given how large a share of Uttar Pradesh's electorate Dalit voters form, their choices are likely to weigh heavily on the 2027 outcome. The central question is not whether their vote counts, but how far it can be moved — and whether any party can consolidate support across both Jatav and non-Jatav Dalits.