Danish intelligence warns Russia will intensify hybrid war on NATO

Denmark's Defence Intelligence Service has warned that Russia is set to intensify its hybrid campaign against the West and NATO, with more frequent attacks and potentially more serious consequences than before.

In a risk assessment issued on Thursday, the service said Moscow would further escalate its hybrid war in the coming months, mounting an increasing number of attempted attacks aimed at causing greater damage.

Speaking in Copenhagen, Defence Minister Jeppe Bruus said Russia was already carrying out attacks in Europe on a scale that was not seen just six months ago. He said the Danish Defence Intelligence Service had recorded more than ten incidents in Europe since July 1 that have been publicly attributed to Russia or where Russia is probably responsible.

Bruus also pointed to a low but growing risk that Russia could decide to launch a limited military attack against one or more NATO countries bordering Russia, even while the war in Ukraine continues. He said the intelligence service considers a full invasion of a NATO country unlikely, but cannot rule it out.

Thomas Ahrenkiel, chief of the Danish Defence Intelligence Service, said Russia is increasingly targeting defence companies and support for Ukraine, and seeking to stop that support from reaching its destination. He said Moscow uses military units, intelligence services and proxies to carry out such attacks.

Ahrenkiel described several possible forms the escalation could take. These include isolated strikes with long-range weapons such as drones or missiles against infrastructure involved in supporting Ukraine, and so-called false flag operations in which Russia uses, for example, Ukrainian-produced drones to attack a NATO country. He also raised the possibility of Russian military forces deploying in a limited area of a NATO country bordering Russia, for instance under the pretext of protecting a Russian minority there.