Denmark Warns Russia May Step Up Hybrid Attacks on NATO

Denmark's Defence Intelligence Service has warned that Russia is likely to escalate its hybrid campaign against Western nations and NATO in the months ahead, pointing to a "low but growing risk" that Moscow could mount a limited military attack on one or more NATO countries along its border.

In a threat assessment released on Thursday, the service said Russia may carry out more frequent attacks on the West, possibly with more serious consequences for the targets than before. It stopped short, however, of judging a full-scale Russian invasion of a NATO member as likely.

The warning lands amid mounting unease across Europe over alleged Russian-linked sabotage, cyberattacks and other hybrid activity, set against the backdrop of the continuing war in Ukraine.

According to the assessment, Moscow could draw on a range of tactics in the coming months, including isolated drone or missile strikes on infrastructure that supports Ukraine. Intelligence chief Thomas Ahrenkiel said Russia might also stage a false-flag operation involving Ukrainian-made drones, or send a limited number of troops into a NATO border area — potentially under the pretext of protecting Russian minorities.

"The aim is not to take over the country, but to divide NATO," Ahrenkiel said.

The service described such a limited military attack as a potentially "desperate move" by Russia, while stressing that the risk remains low even as it rises.

The concern extends beyond conventional military action. Denmark's Resilience Agency separately said Russia was likely to attempt destructive cyberattacks against Denmark and raised its threat level.

Hybrid-warfare worries have sharpened after a string of incidents across Europe. Germany recently accused Russia of involvement in an attempted drone attack at Leipzig/Halle Airport, and NATO has stepped up intelligence-sharing in response to incidents apparently linked to Moscow.

The Danish assessment also cited a recent episode involving a Russian frigate and a Danish military helicopter in international waters off Denmark. Denmark's military said the Russian vessel fired two flares toward the helicopter, one of which narrowly missed the aircraft.

Moscow has consistently denied involvement in sabotage or hybrid operations in NATO countries. The Russian embassy in Denmark rejected the assessment, calling it unsupported by credible evidence and accusing Western countries of stoking tensions over Ukraine.

President Vladimir Putin also dismissed suggestions that Moscow was preparing for conflict with Europe. "We are not preparing for any kind of hostilities with Europe," he told reporters in St Petersburg, saying Russia had "no real motive" to escalate tensions and criticising European countries for urging preparations for a possible war with Russia.

His remarks came a day after the Danish warning, and as several European NATO members voice growing concern about possible Russian provocations or attacks.