Oscar Season Heats Up: Five Early Contenders to Watch
As fall festivals wrap, early Oscar predictions spotlight Nolan's 'The Odyssey,' New York-set dramas, and international gems.
The fall film festival circuit — from Venice and Telluride to the upcoming Toronto event — has officially kicked off the long march toward the Academy Awards, scheduled for next March. While the campaign season began in May at Cannes, the current festival buzz is sharpening the focus on which movies and performances might dominate the conversation.
At the forefront is Christopher Nolan's latest epic, "The Odyssey." Following his sweeping success with "Oppenheimer," which earned best picture and his first best director Oscar, Nolan's new film is an early favorite. However, its reception hasn't matched the near-universal acclaim of its predecessor, and the academy has recently shown a preference for smaller, more intimate productions. The long front-runner status may prove a burden, leaving the race open for a surprise challenger.
New York City is emerging as a rich backdrop for several potential nominees. Jordan Firstman's "Club Kid" blends humor with unexpected tenderness, following a gay clubgoer who discovers he has a child. James Gray's "Paper Tiger" explores family dynamics and mafia corruption in 1980s Queens. John Turturro stars in "The Only Living Pickpocket" as an aging thief navigating a transformed Manhattan. Documentaries also draw on the city's character: "Once Upon a Time in Harlem" revisits a 1972 gathering of Harlem Renaissance icons, while John Wilson's "The History of Concrete" meanders through the intersection of concrete and creativity.
John Malkovich, twice nominated but never a winner, could finally break that streak with his role in Martin McDonagh's "Wild Horse Nine." He plays an aging CIA agent on Easter Island in the early 1970s, a performance said to echo his finest work — witty, soulful, and profane.
On the genre front, Curry Barker's horror sensation "One Wish Willow" has already shattered box office records for a low-budget film. Focus Features is now positioning it for major awards, including best picture and a best actress nod for Inde Navarrette. Other early 2026 releases, such as "Project Hail Mary" from Phil Lord and Christopher Miller and Olivia Wilde's "The Invite," are also expected to enter the fray.
International cinema continues to expand its footprint in the awards race, reflecting the academy's increasingly global membership. Notable titles include Ryusuke Hamaguchi's Paris-set "All of a Sudden," Cristian Mungiu's Palme d'Or-winning "Fjord," the Spanish epic "La Bola Negra," Andrey Zvyagintsev's "Minotaur," Lee Chang-dong's "Possible Love," Paweł Pawlikowski's "Fatherland," and the Nigerian reinterpretation of "Mrs. Dalloway," titled "Clarissa."