Who Could Succeed Lagarde at the ECB? Key Contenders Emerge

France may throw its weight behind former Dutch central bank chief Klaas Knot to become the next president of the European Central Bank, as part of an arrangement in which a French candidate would take the chief economist post, people familiar with the matter say.

Christine Lagarde's term runs until October 2027, but speculation about an early exit has circulated for much of this year. The following are the main names in the frame.

Klaas Knot

A trained monetary economist, the 59-year-old Knot served two full terms as head of the Dutch central bank from 2011 to 2025 and has since worked in advisory roles while campaigning for the ECB presidency.

His 14 years on the ECB's rate-setting Governing Council split into two phases: growing friction with President Mario Draghi's stimulus measures, followed by close alignment with Lagarde, who took over in 2019.

Seen as a pragmatic hawk, Knot arrived during a period of financial and debt crises that threatened the euro zone's cohesion. He initially had doubts about Draghi's "whatever it takes" pledge but later embraced it as a pivotal moment, unlike his German colleague. He clashed openly with Draghi when the ECB launched large-scale stimulus to lift inflation toward its 2% target, and the rift became public in late 2019 when Draghi pushed through a new scheme over the objections of a third of policymakers. Under Lagarde, Knot returned to the fold, though he was an early voice for tighter policy when inflation surged in 2022. From 2021 he also chaired the Financial Stability Board.

Pablo Hernandez de Cos

A moderate dove, the 55-year-old has led the Bank for International Settlements since 2025. He served a single six-year term as Bank of Spain governor from 2018 to 2024, a period that began with ultra-low inflation and was followed by the pandemic and a historic rate-hiking cycle. He was previously the Bank of Spain's chief economist, an unusual move from staff to policymaking. Colleagues describe him as pragmatic, possibly a swing voter, who grounds arguments in evidence and avoids dogma. Earlier this year he was said to be a key coordinator when top central bankers publicly backed Jerome Powell against political pressure. He also chaired the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision.

Joachim Nagel

Head of the Bundesbank since 2022, the 60-year-old has reshaped Germany's relationship with the ECB. Unlike predecessor Jens Weidmann, who fought openly with Draghi's ECB, Nagel has softened his tone and rejoined the fold while remaining a moderate hawk. Colleagues say the PhD economist states his red lines clearly but compromises elsewhere, and he has not opposed any key policy decision. He backs the European Deposit Insurance Scheme, long opposed by Berlin. Nagel has defended ECB independence, pushed back on political criticism, and argued that some far-right AfD proposals were self-defeating. A Social Democrat, he previously held senior roles at the BIS and KfW.

Nadia Calvino

The European Investment Bank president has never publicly expressed interest in the ECB job, but her name surfaces in private discussions. She is regarded as a strong public speaker and a ruthless, effective manager — qualities useful for running a large institution and a 27-member Governing Council. The 57-year-old former Spanish cabinet minister is not a monetary economist, though Lagarde showed that is not essential. Her gender may also help, as only two women sit on the Council and both are due to leave within the next year.