El Nino Pushes India Toward Driest Monsoon in 17 Years

India is heading for its driest monsoon in 17 years, with rainfall running 15 per cent below normal so far this season. The shortfall comes as a strengthening El Nino pattern weighs on the south-west monsoon, the weather phenomenon that delivers most of the country's annual precipitation.

The weak rains are stoking concern about crop yields, particularly for rain-fed kharif crops that depend on timely and adequate monsoon showers. A deficient monsoon can translate into lower agricultural output, tightening supplies of staples and pushing up prices in the food basket.

Those worries are already visible in price data. Food inflation stood at 5.95 per cent in August, a reading that underscores the sensitivity of household budgets to swings in agricultural production.

The combination of a deepening rainfall deficit and elevated food prices poses a challenge for policymakers, who must balance the need to contain inflation against the risk that a poor harvest could hurt rural incomes and farm output.

With El Nino conditions expected to persist, the trajectory of the remaining monsoon weeks will be closely watched for its impact on crops, food prices and the wider economy.