US forecasters see over 90% odds of very strong El Niño in 2026-27
US forecasters say there is a greater than 90% chance of a very strong El Niño in late 2026, with a 69% chance it becomes the strongest since 1950.
The El Niño climate pattern is intensifying, and US forecasters now put the odds of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter of 2026-27 at more than 90%.
The US Climate Prediction Center said on Thursday that during the October-December 2026 season, there is a 69% chance of a historic event that would surpass the strength of all previous El Niños recorded since 1950.
El Niño occurs naturally when weakening trade winds allow warmer ocean waters to accumulate in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. The phenomenon typically drives global temperatures higher and disrupts weather patterns, causing drought in some regions and heavy rainfall in others. When combined with human-caused climate change, it amplifies the risk of extreme weather events.
Japan's Meteorological Agency has separately indicated a 100% probability that El Niño conditions will persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter and into early 2027.
The World Food Programme warned earlier this month that a powerful El Niño could push nearly 49 million additional people into acute food insecurity across the world's most vulnerable regions by the end of next year.
Donald Keeney, an agricultural meteorologist at Vaisala Weather in Finland, noted that while confidence is low, forecasters expect El Niño to peak near the end of this year and then weaken later in the winter and into next spring.