El Niño Set to Intensify, Raising Odds of a Powerful Winter Event
US forecasters say El Niño is strengthening, with over 90% odds of a very strong event this fall and winter.
The El Niño climate pattern is strengthening, and US forecasters now see a greater than 90% chance that it will become a very strong event during the fall and winter months. The update comes from the US Climate Prediction Center, which monitors oceanic and atmospheric conditions that shape global weather.
A very strong El Niño typically disrupts weather patterns worldwide, influencing rainfall, temperatures, and storm tracks. While the forecast highlights the high probability of an intense event, it also points to specific temperature expectations across parts of North America.
The highest odds of above-normal temperatures — exceeding 50 percent — are concentrated in southeastern Alaska, the Pacific Northwest, the northern Rockies, and nearby areas of the northern High Plains and northwestern California. These regions are likely to experience warmer-than-usual conditions as the event unfolds.
Forecasters will continue to track the development of El Niño in the coming weeks, as its strength and timing will determine the extent of its impacts across the globe.