Fresh Fighting in Tigray Undoes 2022 Peace Deal as Rebels Build Alliance

Renewed fighting in northern Ethiopia has effectively dismantled the peace agreement that ended the 2020–2022 war, with rebel forces mobilizing for an armed campaign aimed at removing Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed from power.

The confrontation pits Ethiopian federal troops against fighters loyal to the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), the armed political movement in Tigray, Ethiopia's northernmost regional state. The two sides previously fought from November 2020 until November 2022, when they signed a peace deal in Pretoria, South Africa. Eritrean forces fought alongside Ethiopian troops in that conflict, which researchers at Ghent University estimated cost some 500,000 civilian lives through violence, famine and the collapse of health services.

Under the Pretoria agreement, a caretaker administration regarded as loyal to Abiy was installed in Mekelle, the Tigray capital. Tensions persisted, however, as the TPLF jockeyed for political control of the city. In May, the group pushed out regional leader Tadesse Werede, who answered to Abiy, and replaced him with a council headed by TPLF leader Debretsion Gebremichael, who had directed the Tigrayan side in the earlier war.

On Sunday, the TPLF and six other opposition groups announced an alliance to overthrow Abiy's governing Prosperity Party, which was returned to power in June elections boycotted by major opposition parties. The coalition, calling itself the Ethiopian Peoples' Forces Alliance for Survival, brings together the TPLF with the Amhara Fano National Movement, the Oromo Liberation Army, the Ogaden National Liberation Front, the Afar Revolutionary Democratic Unity Front, the Benishangul Peoples' Liberation Movement and the Gumuz Peoples' Democratic Movement.

According to Kjetil Tronvoll, an Ethiopia analyst at Oslo New University College, the current situation differs markedly from the 2020–2022 war. Writing on X, he noted that Fano is now an ally and Eritrea a backer, with supply lines secured through Eritrea.

Both sides have accused each other of acting in bad faith, and for months civilians in Tigray anticipated a return to hostilities. Federal authorities have accused the TPLF of seeking an alliance with neighbouring Eritrea to destabilize Ethiopia, while the TPLF has accused the government of carrying out drone strikes in Tigray. Eritrea has said it is alarmed by Abiy's repeated statements about wanting sovereign access to the Red Sea through Eritrean territory.

Neither side has claimed responsibility for starting the latest round of fighting, most of which is believed to be taking place in remote, mountainous terrain. On Wednesday, TPLF fighters seized the airport in Mekelle from federal police, prompting national carrier Ethiopian Airlines to cancel flights there and elsewhere in the region.

The Ethiopian News Agency, the government's official news organization, labelled the TPLF a "Trojan horse," saying its "repeated attempts to incite conflict" defied the government's "patience, concessions and magnanimity."

The African Union and IGAD, a key regional bloc, have called for a de-escalation. U.S. Ambassador Ervin J. Massinga said in a statement that he was disappointed by the TPLF's "poor decision to launch a large-scale offensive," adding that its "unwinnable fight does nothing for the people" and that other armed groups would be wise to avoid it. TPLF official Amanuel Assefa called the statement unfair.

Abiy, who came to power in 2018 as a reform-minded pragmatist, won the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize for efforts to repair ties with Eritrea, which broke away from Ethiopia in 1993 after decades of guerrilla warfare. A year later he launched a military operation against the TPLF. His push for sovereign access to the Eritrean port of Assab has reignited tensions with Eritrea, which borders Tigray, and his attempt to negotiate sea access through Somaliland territory angered Somalia.