EU maize output forecast slashed to 19-year low on heat, drought

The European Commission has sharply reduced its forecast for the European Union's 2026/27 maize harvest, citing severe heat and drought that have damaged crops across large parts of the continent. The monthly estimate now stands at 50.1 million tonnes, down 1.8 million tonnes from the previous projection and marking the lowest level in 19 years.

Private analysts expect the situation to worsen further. One major commodity research firm has projected the bloc's maize crop at just 46.9 million tonnes, which would be the smallest this century.

In response to the shrinking domestic supply, the Commission has raised its forecast for EU maize imports in 2026/27 by 1 million tonnes to 25 million tonnes — the highest level since the 2022/23 season.

For soft wheat, the EU's primary cereal crop, the Commission trimmed its output estimate slightly to 124.2 million tonnes from 124.4 million tonnes in late July. The export projection for the season was left unchanged at 29.0 million tonnes. However, end-of-season soft wheat stocks in June 2027 were cut by 1.6 million tonnes to 11.3 million tonnes, largely due to a 1-million-tonne upward revision to exports from the previous season.

In contrast, the barley outlook improved. The Commission raised its 2026/27 barley production forecast by 1.9 million tonnes to 52.9 million tonnes.

Among oilseeds, the Commission reduced its rapeseed production estimate to 19.4 million tonnes from 19.8 million tonnes last month. Projected EU rapeseed imports for the season were correspondingly increased to 6.4 million tonnes from 5.7 million tonnes.