EU cuts maize harvest forecast to lowest level this century after summer drought

The European Commission has reduced its forecast for maize production across the European Union this year to 48.3 million metric tons, the weakest level since at least 2000, following summer drought that damaged crops in parts of the bloc.

The revised figure is down from 50.1 million tons projected in late August and stands 11.9 million tons below the Commission's estimate for the 2025 harvest.

The cut follows an assessment by the EU's crop-monitoring service MARS, which on Monday lowered its maize yield forecasts and said rainfall had arrived too late to undo the damage caused by summer heat and drought.

Even with the smaller harvest, the Commission left its projection for maize imports this season unchanged at 25 million tons — still well above the 19.3 million tons imported in 2025/26.

For soft wheat, the bloc's main cereal crop, the Commission held its 2026/27 production estimate at 124.2 million tons and its export projection at 29.0 million tons. Soft wheat ending stocks were nudged up to 11.4 million tons from 11.3 million tons previously.

Barley output was revised higher to 53.6 million tons from 52.9 million tons. In oilseeds, rapeseed production and import projections were kept at 19.4 million tons and 6.4 million tons respectively.