EU maize harvest set for multi-decade low as drought hits France and Germany
Persistent drought and heat across Europe could push the EU maize harvest to its lowest in decades, with France facing its smallest crop since 1976.
Europe's maize harvest is heading for a historic slump, with relentless heat and drought threatening to cut French production by half and drag the entire European Union crop to levels not seen in decades.
The European Commission had already trimmed its forecast for the 2026/27 EU maize harvest to 51.9 million metric tons in late July, the lowest since 2007. But several analysts now believe output could fall below 50 million tons for the first time since the 1990s, a prospect that would sharply increase the bloc's import requirements.
"Agronomically speaking, the situation in the EU is very bad," said Gabriel Antonio, an analyst at Expana, noting that the poor outlook would likely boost EU imports significantly.
Weather has compounded the impact of reduced planting, which was partly driven by high fertiliser and energy costs.
France faces worst crop since 1976
France, the EU's largest maize producer, is bearing the brunt of the crisis. The agriculture ministry projects a 35% drop from last year to 9 million tons, but analysts at Expana and Argus expect a far steeper decline — roughly half of last year's output, to less than 7 million tons. That would mark France's smallest harvest since 1976.
A scorching July and the worst soil drought on record have devastated crop conditions, particularly in non-irrigated fields.
"Irrigation will salvage some of the crop. But I think production can go even lower, depending on how much area is diverted towards fodder," said Maxence Devillers, an analyst at Argus.
With extreme weather drying out grassland, more farmers are expected to chop maize for livestock feed instead of harvesting it for grain. Argus and growers' group AGPM estimate this could reduce grain maize area by several hundred thousand hectares.
Showers and cooler temperatures forecast for next week will come too late for many crops, with harvesting expected to start unusually early this month, according to AGPM Chairman Franck Laborde.
Germany also hit, but Poland and Romania offer some relief
Germany's grain maize crop has also suffered. Farm cooperatives association DRV forecast a 14% year-on-year drop in output to 4.24 million tons. However, much will depend on rainfall in the coming weeks, and conditions could still improve before harvesting begins around October and November.
Poland could emerge as the EU's largest maize producer this year, with output expected to hold near 9 million tons. "At present, the overall condition of maize plantations in Poland isn't bad," said Wojtek Sabaranski of analysts Sparks Polska, estimating output at 8.7 million to 9.0 million tons, compared with 8.9 million last year.
Timely July rain benefited northern and central regions, Sabaranski said, adding that forecast rainfall could help southern areas that received less moisture last month.
Romania could also help cushion the drop in EU output after heavy rainfall boosted yield prospects this year. However, lower plantings are expected to limit production to around 8 million tons. Devillers noted that a dry August, which has contributed to record-low water levels on the Danube River, could further curb yield potential.