European rail suppliers locked out of €97 billion in annual business, study finds

European rail suppliers are unable to compete for roughly €97 billion ($111 billion) in annual business because trade barriers keep them out of foreign markets, according to the 2026 World Rail Market Study released on Tuesday.

The study, prepared by Bain & Company for the European Rail Supply Industry Association (UNIFE), covers 66 countries that together account for 99% of global rail traffic. It is published every two years.

Governments around the world have been raising investment in rail infrastructure as part of efforts to cut emissions and move passengers and freight away from road and air transport. Yet European companies are losing ground as the fastest-growing markets become more difficult to enter.

EU suppliers now have access to only 56% of the world's rail markets, down from 59% in the 2024 study, continuing a decline that has lasted nearly two decades.

China, India and the United States have increased efforts to build up domestic manufacturing, making it harder for foreign suppliers to win contracts. The study treats a market as inaccessible when foreign suppliers cannot bid directly, or when they face requirements to produce locally, work through joint ventures, or keep services such as maintenance in-house instead of outsourcing them.

Despite these obstacles, the global rail market is projected to grow to €266.8 billion in 2029-2031 from €221 billion in 2023-2025, an average annual growth rate of 3.2%. The sector has largely recovered from the supply-chain disruptions and demand slump caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

"Strong global growth and full order books for the industry are very positive, however seeing global access for the European Rail Supply Industry decline for the third study in a row is concerning," UNIFE Director General Enno Wiebe said in a statement.

The euro was quoted at $1 = 0.8716.