Five charts: Yen intervention, refining margins, and a SpaceX capex shock

Each week, our markets team distills the financial news into five charts that capture the trends, surprises, and under-the-radar moves shaping the global economy. Here is what stood out over the past five days.

1. A Yen Intervention with a Twist

The U.S. Treasury's decision to buy yen last Friday was unusual in several ways. It was preceded by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's public 'to-do' list, and the purchases were funded with euros rather than dollars. That choice suggests Washington is wary of selling dollar assets while long-dated Treasury yields sit near 19-year highs. The use of the Federal Reserve's FIMA repo facility also helped ease pressure on Tokyo to offload its massive U.S. debt holdings. The episode highlights a latent risk: a major creditor like Japan could be forced to liquidate Treasuries, driving up borrowing costs. While that scenario remains unlikely, the combination of yen weakness, stress in Japanese government bonds, and credibility questions at both the Fed and Bank of Japan warrants caution.

2. Refiners Enjoy a Windfall

The Iran war has knocked out roughly 5 million barrels per day of global refining capacity compared with pre-war levels. That has handed refiners significant pricing power, pushing margins for gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel to record highs. Oil majors have benefited in their second-quarter earnings, but these gains are likely temporary because they stem from lost capacity, not stronger underlying demand.

3. Nominal GDP Signals Overheating

While inflation-adjusted U.S. GDP growth looked modest, nominal GDP expanded at an annualized rate of nearly 8% in the second quarter. That pace has been exceeded only twice in the past three years and is almost double the 25-year average. It is another sign the U.S. economy is running hot, raising pressure on policymakers to tighten. If the Fed does not act, the bond market may do the job for it.

4. EVs Reshaping Fuel Trade?

Several countries have sharply increased imports of Chinese electric vehicles this year while cutting gasoline imports. Correlation is not causation, and the Iran war's impact on fuel imports is clearly a factor. But when the pattern appears across multiple regions and income levels, it may signal a structural shift. The possibility that China's EV export surge is beginning to reshape global gasoline trade flows is provocative but worth watching.

5. SpaceX's AI Splurge

SpaceX reported second-quarter revenue of $7.8 billion, beating expectations, but its stock fell as investors focused on a massive rise in capital spending tied to its artificial intelligence build-out. Total spending hit $18.4 billion in the quarter, including $15.8 billion on AI. Further pressure could come after the first lockup period for insider holdings expires on Thursday, testing retail investors' resolve.