Fitch Affirms US at AA+ With Stable Outlook, Flags Fiscal Risks

Fitch Ratings has affirmed the United States' long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating at 'AA+' with a stable outlook. The agency's decision reflects the country's large and diversified economy, high per-capita income, dynamic business environment, and exceptional financing flexibility.

Fitch projects US economic growth to remain relatively resilient, averaging 1.9% in 2026-2027, down from an estimated 2.8% in 2025. The agency noted that labor demand has weakened and job creation has dropped significantly in 2026, signaling a cooling labor market.

On inflation, Fitch expects it to move toward the Federal Reserve's target by the end of 2028. However, the agency highlighted growing fiscal challenges: high budget deficits, a substantial interest burden, and high and rising government debt levels constrain the rating.

Fitch also warned that political gridlock and government shutdowns may become more likely and possibly more protracted. Additionally, fiscal pressures are set to increase as Medicare and Social Security expenditures expand by nearly one percentage point of GDP by 2032.

The stable outlook balances these risks against the country's structural strengths, but the trajectory of debt and political dysfunction remain key watch items.