France Ties ECB Presidency Support to Chief Economist Post

France has signalled it would support Dutch central banker Klaas Knot as the next president of the European Central Bank, provided the influential post of chief economist goes to a French candidate, according to people familiar with the matter.

The informal proposal is understood to have the backing of French President Emmanuel Macron. It is likely to run into firm opposition from Germany, setting up a political tussle among the euro zone's largest economies over the reshaping of the ECB's top leadership.

Macron's office did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Knot declined to comment, the Dutch finance ministry was not immediately available, and the ECB also declined to comment.

The succession discussion has gathered pace in recent weeks amid speculation that ECB President Christine Lagarde and Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel could both leave before their terms end in late 2027. The ECB president and five other Executive Board members are chosen by consensus among the leaders of the currency bloc's 21 countries, with Germany, France and Italy effectively holding permanent seats.

Early departures by Lagarde, who is French, and Germany's Schnabel would bring forward decisions expected next year and open the way for a broad package covering their posts and that of Chief Economist Philip Lane, whose term ends in May.

Under the plan, Knot — who led the Dutch central bank from 2011 to 2025 — would take the presidency with France's support. Market participants see him as a pragmatist who leans towards tighter monetary policy but is flexible enough to adjust as data changes. "He is a hawk, but in a smart way," a French official said of him.

Former Bank of Spain governor Pablo Hernández de Cos, regarded as a swing voter on the rate-setting Governing Council, is seen as Knot's main rival. Because de Cos comes from southern Europe, his appointment would almost certainly require one of the euro zone's northern "frugal" countries to take the chief economist role to keep the balance of power.

In exchange for backing Knot, France wants the chief economist job — chosen by the ECB president from among Executive Board members — for itself. Those cited as possible French candidates include Banque de France Deputy Governor Agnes Benassy-Quere, former OECD chief economist and ex-junior Europe minister Laurence Boone, and Helene Rey, currently at the Bank for International Settlements. Any of them would help preserve gender balance on the board, where Lagarde and Schnabel are currently the only women.

The move risks immediate resistance from Berlin. Although the proposal would leave Germany with Schnabel's vacated seat and her market operations portfolio, German officials are also eyeing the chief economist role, widely seen as the board's second most influential position. France's mounting debt problems have made Paris more eager to keep a firm grip on euro zone monetary policy, while less-indebted and more economically orthodox Germany remains wary of any softening in the ECB's commitment to price stability.

Lagarde has publicly expressed interest in advocating for European integration ahead of next year's French presidential election, where eurosceptic far-right leader Marine Le Pen is polling strongly. Leaving before the May vote would guarantee Macron a decisive say in choosing her successor before he leaves office. Lagarde has not ruled out an early departure, saying only: "You are not going to see the back of me before 2027." Media reports have often linked her to the leadership of the World Economic Forum. Schnabel has not commented on a Handelsblatt report that she is discussing a senior role at the International Monetary Fund. Lagarde's eight-year mandate formally ends at the end of October 2027, with Schnabel's term finishing two months later.