France Forecasts 35% Drop in Maize Output, Lowest in Decades

France's farm ministry has issued its first forecast for this year's grain maize crop, projecting a 35% decline from 2025 to 9.0 million metric tons. If realised, this would be the smallest harvest since at least 1980, as heatwaves and drought have taken a heavy toll on the cereal.

Maize has been the hardest-hit among cereals because it is in the middle of its growing season during the summer's extreme weather. The ministry expects the average yield to fall to 7.03 tons per hectare, the lowest since 2003. This compounds a sharp reduction in planting, with the grain maize area estimated to be 21% smaller than last year.

Private analysts are even more pessimistic. Argus Media projects the crop at 6.9 million tons, which would be the lowest since 1976.

For soft wheat, France's main cereal, the ministry trimmed its production estimate to 31.9 million tons from 32.0 million tons last month, putting output 4% below last year's level.

In oilseeds, rapeseed output was revised up to 4.7 million tons from 4.6 million tons, nearly 2% above last year. The sunflower seed crop is projected at 1.4 million tons, with the lowest yield since at least 1980, though an increase in planted area should keep total output close to last year's level.