France's wheat export surplus could vanish by 2036, growers warn
French growers warn the country's wheat export surplus could disappear by 2036 if falling harvests from climate and economic pressures continue.
France, the European Union's largest wheat producer, could lose its ability to export to world markets within a decade if current trends of shrinking harvests are not reversed, according to a major growers' group.
The warning comes as the country's soft wheat output — its primary crop — is projected to reach 31.9 million metric tons this year, a 4% drop from 2025, as per agriculture ministry data. The AGPB growers' association notes this decline extends a steady fall since a record harvest of roughly 41 million tons in 2015.
If the downward trajectory persists at the current rate, France could lose an additional 6 million tons of soft wheat production by 2036. That amount is equivalent to the country's expected export surplus for non-European Union markets this season.
Growers attribute the shrinking output to a hotter, drier climate that has curbed yields, alongside falling farm incomes that have led to less land being devoted to grains, particularly in southern and central regions. The AGPB forecasts that grain farmers will face negative income for a fourth consecutive year in 2026, with rising fertiliser costs offsetting a recovery in crop prices.
Like other farming organisations, the AGPB has criticised a €1 billion ($1.16 billion) government aid package for weather-related losses as insufficient. Looking ahead, the group proposes that the EU introduce variable subsidies — providing more support when prices are low and less when markets are favourable.
The association also opposes expanding an EU import quota for wheat from Ukraine, arguing it could depress prices, as was seen earlier during Russia's war with Ukraine, according to AGPB chairman Eric Thirouin.