French wheat exports to fall as poor maize harvest forces feed switch
France's wheat exports outside the EU are set to drop sharply in 2026/27 as a drought-hit maize crop forces more wheat into livestock feed.
France, the European Union's largest grain producer, is expected to significantly reduce its soft wheat exports outside the bloc in the upcoming season. The shift comes as a severely damaged maize harvest forces domestic livestock farmers to turn to wheat as an alternative feed source, according to commodity analysis firm Argus Media.
Argus projects French soft wheat exports to non-EU destinations will reach no more than 6 million metric tons in 2026/27. That figure is well below the 7 million tons forecast by farm office FranceAgriMer in July, and down from an estimated 7.4 million tons in the current 2025/26 season.
The downward revision is tied directly to France's grain maize crop, which Argus estimates will plunge to 6.9 million tons — its lowest level since 1976 — after a summer of record heat and drought. The damage extends across the bloc: EU maize production is expected to fall 19% from last year to 46.9 million tons, the lowest since the 1990s.
The maize shortfall comes at a difficult time, as war has disrupted shipments from Ukraine, the EU's main maize supplier. With limited capacity to boost maize imports in an already tight global market, Argus says substitution of maize by wheat for livestock feed will need to be pushed to a maximum across Europe. This dynamic is also expected to curb overall EU wheat exports.
On the supply side, Argus estimates EU all-wheat output at 131.5 million tons, down nearly 9% from 2025/26. The firm maintained its July estimate for the French soft wheat crop at 30.8 million tons, a decline of 7.6%.