German State Elections Loom as Merz Faces Pressure from Far-Right AfD

Two German regional elections this weekend are expected to deliver further gains for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) and could determine whether Chancellor Friedrich Merz can hold on to power and push ahead with reforms to Europe's largest economy.

Merz's authority was damaged by his party's stinging defeat on September 6 at the hands of the anti-migration, Russia-friendly AfD in Saxony-Anhalt, a small eastern state. The AfD finished just short of a majority there and has its best chance yet of forming the country's first far-right regional government since World War II.

Merz, 70, became Germany's leader 16 months ago with promises to turn around an economy that has barely grown in years, but has failed to lift a sullen national mood and has himself become deeply unpopular.

On Sunday, two more states hold elections: Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, another largely rural region in the formerly communist and less prosperous east; and the capital, Berlin.

The AfD is expected to make significant gains, but has no realistic path to power in Berlin and faces a much stronger challenge from Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania's center-left governor than it did from Merz's party in Saxony-Anhalt.

Prospects for Merz's center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) are bleaker. It could lose the mayor's office in Berlin. If things go very badly, it could fail for the first time to win seats in a state legislature anywhere by falling below 5% of the vote in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, where it was already weak.

Merz said last week that "giving up is not an option for me." But the CDU's deputy local leader in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania called for him to go, and speculation has mounted that he might soon be replaced — although no top-level allies have called publicly for his departure, and many have warned against "personnel debates."

Apparently anticipating a tough post-election period, Merz abandoned a planned trip to New York next week to attend the U.N. General Assembly.

"Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania will bring a disastrous result for the CDU," said Wolfgang Muno, a political science professor at the University of Rostock, the state's biggest city. "And if the CDU also does badly in Berlin and loses the mayor, then a great deal of pressure will be exerted on Friedrich Merz."

Muno noted that both Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania share similarities: small eastern states that have faced economic problems due to reunification and the decline of industry. He said people in eastern Germany are much more opposed to immigration than those in the west, creating fertile ground for the AfD.

Beatrix von Storch, an AfD lawmaker, told supporters at a rally in Bad Doberan that Merz is finished. "This chancellor is finished—everyone knows it, and he knows it too—but they have no alternative because they don't want to change their political course," she said.

Manuela Schwesig, the governor of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, is campaigning to make her Social Democratic Party (SPD) the strongest force. "We want to become the strongest party, because it matters whether a right-wing populist—and in some respects extremist—party becomes the strongest party here, wins the election, and is able to appoint the governor," she said.

Merz, speaking in Berlin, struck a defiant tone: "We are an elected government. We were elected for four years. I was elected for four years, and I want us to use these four years to lead our country out of this difficult phase."

Muno suggested that if the CDU performs poorly in both states, the governing coalition will most likely continue but will try to make changes, perhaps in policy and personnel. Whether an alternative candidate—such as Hendrik Wüst or Markus Söder—might run is still unclear, he added.