Germany's CDU Suffers Heavy Losses as AfD and Left Make Gains in State Votes

Chancellor Friedrich Merz's Christian Democrats suffered severe losses in two German state elections on Sunday, as voters frustrated by economic stagnation and rising living costs turned to parties outside the political mainstream.

The results in the northeastern state of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and in Berlin dealt a major blow to Merz, who described the outcome as a "disaster." His party's showing in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania was its worst in any state election since 1949, and the chancellor now faces mounting calls to resign less than 17 months into the job.

Merz has signalled he will stay on and press ahead with his reform agenda, but the losses have raised questions about his standing within the CDU. His weakened position at the helm of the European Union's largest member state could complicate efforts to maintain unity in the bloc, where far-right parties are gaining ground amid cooler relations with the United States and intensifying economic pressures.

The far-right Alternative fuer Deutschland (AfD) made significant gains in both states and emerged as the strongest party in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, more than doubling its 2021 result. It is the second time in two weeks that the party has captured the largest share of votes in a state election, after winning in Saxony-Anhalt earlier this month, building momentum ahead of federal elections due in 2029.

The AfD, already leading nationwide polls with 29%, has drawn support with pledges to deport foreigners without the right to remain, return to cheap Russian energy and promote conservative values centred on the traditional family. Other major parties continue to shun coalitions with the AfD under a "firewall" strategy, making it unlikely the party will govern in either state. It finished third in Berlin.

As the AfD gains and the vote splinters across more parties, stable majorities are becoming harder to assemble. Preliminary results indicate that any future government in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania would need three parties to function. In that state, the most likely arrangement appears to be for the second-placed Social Democrats to add the Greens to their existing coalition with the Left Party. In Berlin, the victorious Left Party could form a majority with the SPD and the Greens.

The hard-left Die Linke also scored strong gains as frustrated voters drifted from the mainstream. In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, it drew 28,000 voters from the CDU and 45,000 from the SPD, according to polling by infratest dimap for broadcaster ARD, illustrating its growing appeal among the SPD's traditional working-class base. In Berlin, the SPD lost some 36,000 voters to the Left Party, while the Greens lost 51,000.

Economic anxiety played a central role in both campaigns, which unfolded against a backdrop of surging fuel prices linked to the Middle East conflict and tens of thousands of additional job cuts in German industry. In Berlin, the Left Party struck a chord with its focus on the city's housing shortage, pledging to build affordable homes, forcibly reduce rents on properties 20% or more above the local average, and curb holiday rentals. The AfD won support with a proposal to revive the Nord Stream gas pipeline from Russia, which terminates in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, arguing it would lower energy costs.

Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania premier Manuela Schwesig of the SPD said opposition to aid for Ukraine and support for the defunct Nord Stream pipeline were two reasons voters in the former East German region migrated to the AfD, which is considered Russia-friendly.