Global AI spending to hit $1 trillion in 2026, says Goldman Sachs

Global investment in artificial intelligence is on track to reach approximately $1 trillion in 2026, according to a new analysis from Goldman Sachs Research. The firm expects AI-related capital expenditure to remain strong in the near term, with spending rising from 0.9% of global GDP in 2026 to 1.3% in 2027 and 1.4% in 2028.

The estimate covers a broader scope than typical projections, which often focus only on US hyperscalers. Goldman Sachs' figure of roughly $1 trillion includes $581 billion from the United States, along with investments from private companies, non-hyperscaler firms, and businesses outside the US. By comparison, the commonly cited figure for US hyperscaler capital expenditure is around $794 billion.

Cumulative AI investment since 2022 could reach $1.8 trillion by the end of 2026, the research suggests. The bank notes that the pace and eventual scale of AI investment remain a key uncertainty for macroeconomic and financial markets, particularly as investors assess how high AI capital expenditure could rise as a share of GDP and when growth might slow.

In the US, AI investment is projected to increase from 1.8% of GDP in 2026 to 2.5% in 2027 and 2.8% in 2028. Globally, the figure would reach 1.4% of GDP by 2028. These levels remain within the historical range seen during previous general-purpose technology buildouts, when peak investment impulses typically reached 2% to 5% of GDP.

Goldman Sachs also suggests that consensus expectations for 2027 capital expenditure could prove conservative, leaving room for upward revisions. Near-term indicators, including semiconductor manufacturing equipment imports in Taiwan and South Korea, purchasing managers' indices, import prices, memory purchase prices, and GPU rental prices, are currently near the upper end of their ranges since 2022, pointing to continued strength in AI-related spending.

The bank cautions that its estimates involve assumptions that are difficult to verify and carry some risk of double-counting, particularly where companies do not separately report financial leases and hardware capital expenditure. To address this, Goldman Sachs cross-checked its figures using corporate earnings revisions, government investment data, and global trade flows, which produced broadly similar estimates of around $1 trillion in global AI investment for 2026.